Confirmation Bias

Discussed in: Episode 13

“Confirmation bias is an adaptive strategy you use where you tend to only look for information that supports your current belief, to confirm forming judgments. Disconfirmation often takes too long and is very difficult and complex. All of your heuristic machinery can go awry and mislead you; representativeness heuristic has you misjudge the probability of events. For example, the news represents airplane crashes as more of a tragedy than car crashes, so we judge plane crashes as more probable, even though they aren’t. Just like hyperbolic discounting, we can’t do away with heuristics, they’re adaptive. Most of this happens automatically in a self-organizing fashion… imagine if you had to do everything fully consciously; rather, it’s both bottom-up and top-down.”